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Thread: Can you can guess the month another person bought their Golf?

  1. #41
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    Say I had a regular door that I could either open or close.

    What are the odds of either? 50% chance I'll open it and 50% chance I'll close it. Now, what if my primary reason for opening the door is to walk through it? That would change the odds, no? I would be opening the door to go through it. But we all know that I wouldn't fit through if I only opened the door by 10cm.

    What are the odds of me opening the door wide enough to ensure I will fit though it? The 50/50 chance of me opening/closing it is still present, but with the added technicality of me completing my goal (walking through the door).
    2002 Volkswagen Bora V5 - 2007 Mazda 3 GT - 1998 Ford Contour Sport - 2010 Volkswagen Jetta 2.0T - 2013 Volkswagen Passat 130TDI - 2015 Ford Escape 1.5 - 2016 Subaru WRX - 2018 Volkswagen Golf R Wolfsburg Wagon

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by maca View Post
    You're my hero again, Whubbsie. You've proven my point exactly.

    There are so many varying factors when it comes to probablity, there can never be a definite answer.
    Was that an ordinary automatic door, an ordinary door with a doorman or a bog standard household quality open it yourself door?

    And what if the power is out, the doorman is asleep or someone opens the household door at the same time that you arrive?

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    Was that an ordinary automatic door, an ordinary door with a doorman or a bog standard household quality open it yourself door?

    And what if the power is out, the doorman is asleep or someone opens the household door at the same time that you arrive?
    You're hurting my brain!!


    Call me stubborn or whatever, but I just can't move away from how it's a 50/50 chance. I can appreciate what Dubya's told us many times in different ways, but I just can't shake the simplicity of this whole equation.
    2002 Volkswagen Bora V5 - 2007 Mazda 3 GT - 1998 Ford Contour Sport - 2010 Volkswagen Jetta 2.0T - 2013 Volkswagen Passat 130TDI - 2015 Ford Escape 1.5 - 2016 Subaru WRX - 2018 Volkswagen Golf R Wolfsburg Wagon

  4. #44
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    Right. Well done to those who kept on topic. To those that didn't you're lucky I didn't hand out the bans but hey I'm in a good mood.
    As with the last thread and last time, once again the correct option is not to switch and your choice does not miraculously become 50/50 as you have prior knowledge and choices. If you don't get the maths behind it that's ok some people just aren't inclined that way. Just don't for a minute think that you're right for a 50/50 chance because you're not end of story. If you wan't to discuss this topic further go and join a science/maths/statistics forum.
    That is all.
    Cheers,
    Trent

    2010 Renault Clio RenaultSPORT 200 Cup 20th Anniversary Edition - #19 of 30 - The French Connection...
    2004 Volkswagen Golf R32 MkIV - #044 of 200 - Gone But Not Forgotten...
    "Racing is life; Anything that happens before or after is just waiting." - Steve McQueen -=-=- "Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum" - Unknown

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