Say I had a regular door that I could either open or close.
What are the odds of either? 50% chance I'll open it and 50% chance I'll close it. Now, what if my primary reason for opening the door is to walk through it? That would change the odds, no? I would be opening the door to go through it. But we all know that I wouldn't fit through if I only opened the door by 10cm.
What are the odds of me opening the door wide enough to ensure I will fit though it? The 50/50 chance of me opening/closing it is still present, but with the added technicality of me completing my goal (walking through the door).
2002 Volkswagen Bora V5 - 2007 Mazda 3 GT - 1998 Ford Contour Sport - 2010 Volkswagen Jetta 2.0T - 2013 Volkswagen Passat 130TDI - 2015 Ford Escape 1.5 - 2016 Subaru WRX - 2018 Volkswagen Golf R Wolfsburg Wagon
website: www.my-gti.com
2002 Volkswagen Bora V5 - 2007 Mazda 3 GT - 1998 Ford Contour Sport - 2010 Volkswagen Jetta 2.0T - 2013 Volkswagen Passat 130TDI - 2015 Ford Escape 1.5 - 2016 Subaru WRX - 2018 Volkswagen Golf R Wolfsburg Wagon
Right. Well done to those who kept on topic. To those that didn't you're lucky I didn't hand out the bans but hey I'm in a good mood.
As with the last thread and last time, once again the correct option is not to switch and your choice does not miraculously become 50/50 as you have prior knowledge and choices. If you don't get the maths behind it that's ok some people just aren't inclined that way. Just don't for a minute think that you're right for a 50/50 chance because you're not end of story. If you wan't to discuss this topic further go and join a science/maths/statistics forum.
That is all.
Cheers,
Trent
2010 Renault Clio RenaultSPORT 200 Cup 20th Anniversary Edition - #19 of 30 - The French Connection...
2004 Volkswagen Golf R32 MkIV - #044 of 200 - Gone But Not Forgotten...
"Racing is life; Anything that happens before or after is just waiting." - Steve McQueen -=-=- "Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum" - Unknown
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